Launch channel research

Startup promotion channels,
with the uncertainty left in.

Compare what experimental paid listing markets publicly charge against the outbound clicks they report. Use this research to decide where—not whether—to test paid placement.

15 markets observed9 comparable observations0 first-party test datasets

01

Observed, penalized, disclosed.

Displayed CPC uses only public dollars and outbound clicks covering the same listing set.

Evidence confidence downgrades stale, sampled, operator-reported, and incomparable data.

Break-even math is scenario planning. We never invent a conversion rate or call traffic revenue.

02

Comparable public cost-per-click observations.

Click a row to inspect its source. Operator counters are not audited performance and do not predict a SpotBundle campaign.

9 opportunities in view
MarketDisplayed CPCBreak-even conversionSignalConfidenceEvidence
01Link for a Dollarentire public board$0.04$31.00 displayed / 756 clicks0.008% break-even at $500.000.008%at $500.00 customer valuepromisingSignal score 71/100low9% model confidenceOperator board aggregateSep 2, 12:34 PM UTC02outrank.lolentire visible board$0.06$15.00 displayed / 237 clicks0.013% break-even at $500.000.013%at $500.00 customer valuepromisingSignal score 61/100low7% model confidenceOperator listing countersAug 26, 7:20 PM UTC03uprank.lolcurrent top 10$0.13$628.00 displayed / 4,775 clicks0.026% break-even at $500.000.026%at $500.00 customer valuespeculativeSignal score 43/100low9% model confidenceOperator listing countersAug 26, 7:20 PM UTC04outbid.torows with both visible bid and click values$0.14$42.00 displayed / 310 clicks0.027% break-even at $500.000.027%at $500.00 customer valuespeculativeSignal score 42/100low9% model confidenceOperator listing countersAug 26, 7:20 PM UTC05Outbid LOLentire visible board$0.25$17.00 displayed / 69 clicks0.049% break-even at $500.000.049%at $500.00 customer valuespeculativeSignal score 29/100low7% model confidenceOperator listing countersAug 26, 7:20 PM UTC06LaunchArenapaid rows with both values$0.26$106.00 displayed / 408 clicks0.052% break-even at $500.000.052%at $500.00 customer valuespeculativeSignal score 28/100low10% model confidenceOperator listing countersAug 26, 7:20 PM UTC07Bid Directorycurrent top 10$0.45$532.00 displayed / 1,181 clicks0.090% break-even at $500.000.090%at $500.00 customer valueexpensiveSignal score 18/100low9% model confidenceOperator listing countersAug 26, 7:20 PM UTC08outbid.lolsampled current rows #5–#30$1.14$87,305.00 displayed / 76,879 clicks0.23% break-even at $500.000.23%at $500.00 customer valueexpensiveSignal score 8/100low11% model confidenceOperator listing countersAug 26, 7:20 PM UTC09outbids.lolentire public board$1.64$4,224.00 displayed / 2,576 clicks0.33% break-even at $500.000.33%at $500.00 customer valueexpensiveSignal score 6/100low13% model confidenceOperator board aggregateSep 2, 12:34 PM UTC
Read this correctly: displayed CPC divides public dollars by public outbound clicks. It is not a forecast, an audited media metric, or ROI. The break-even rate is scenario math using the customer value you entered. SpotBundle-verified campaigns will appear as a separate first-party evidence tier.

03

How a paid test becomes evidence.

Where a publisher permits it, a campaign-specific SpotBundle redirect records qualified outbound navigation without requiring access to the buyer’s product analytics.

  1. 1Record exact vendor spend and placement window.
  2. 2Route outbound visits through a campaign and channel-specific URL.
  3. 3Separate browser navigations from known previews, prefetches, and bots.
  4. 4Report the observed signal without claiming conversion or revenue.

Put the research to work

We use these signals as one input—not as a reason to buy weak inventory.

The founding sprint combines established launch surfaces with capped experiments and documents every decision.

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